Who will win the 2024 presidential election? Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 makes 2024 pick
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s, has announced his final prediction for the 2024 presidential election.
In a NYT Opinion video released Thursday morning, Lichtman says he believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win the race for the White House this November.
Lichtman is not a psychic, he's a historian. He told FOX News earlier this year that the formula he's used to correctly predict nearly every presidential race since 1984, his "Keys to the White House," which was developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and is based on their analysis of presidential elections dating back to 1860. The secret to his success, Lichtman says, is to keep his own personal preferences out of his predictions.
Lichtman explained his decision in the video, saying Harris secured the majority of his ‘13 Keys to the White House’, making her the candidate most likely to win the race.
Lichtman is expected to discuss further his latest prediction Thursday night at 9:00 p.m. on his YouTube channel.
ALLAN LICHTMAN'S 13 THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate)
- KEY 2 (Contest)
- KEY 3 (Incumbency)
- KEY 4 (Third Party)
- KEY 5 (Short-Term Economy)
- KEY 6 (Long-Term Economy)
- KEY 7 (Policy Change)
- KEY 8 (Social Unrest)
- KEY 9 (Scandal)
- KEY 10 (Foreign/Military Failure)
- KEY 11 (Foreign/Military Success)
- KEY 12 (Incumbent Charisma)
- KEY 13 (Challenger Charisma)
"The keys are an alternative to the polls, which are not predictors. They're snapshots, they're abused, not used as predictors. And the pundits, you know, who are a lot of fun, but they're sports talk radio. They have no scientific basis for any of their predictions," Lichtman told FOX.
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman tells Democrats after Biden drops out: 'Get smart and unite'
Presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman – who has correctly predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 – says there's still a way forward for Democrats after President Joe Biden's unexpected announcement that he was dropping out of the 2024 race and endorsing VP Kamala Harris Sunday.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, with the exception being the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
With just 60 days until the Nov. 5 election, both candidates still have a lot of ground to cover as both campaigns are focusing their efforts on the seven key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election.
FOX 5 DC and FOX News contributed to this report.