CIA says lab leak favored as likely COVID origin

FILE - This photo shows a general view of the P4 laboratory on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province on December 21, 2024, ahead of the fifth anniversary of China confirming its first death from the

The CIA believes a laboratory is the theory that most likely explains the origination of COVID-19, an assessment that was released Saturday reportedly shows. 

The CIA reviewed all known intelligence surrounding the virus and believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more likely than a natural origin – though with "low confidence" in its own conclusion. 

Here is what to know about the recent assessment: 

CIA lab leak

A new CIA assessment about the origination of COVID was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of John Ratcliffe, President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the spy agency

The assessment shows the CIA now believes – albeit with "low confidence" – that the virus responsible for the pandemic most likely originated from a lab.

Earlier reports on the origins of COVID-19 have split over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally.

The assessment, which was completed on order from the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns, acknowledged the CIA has "low confidence" in its own conclusion, but said it now believes the evidence makes a lab origin more likely. 

The conclusion was not reached because of any new information, but rather from a fresh analysis. The low degree of confidence in the conclusion suggests the evidence is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory, The Associated Press reported.

The backstory:

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists think the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, China, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

Some official investigations, however, have raised the question of whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. 

Two years ago a report by the Energy Department concluded a lab leak was the most likely origin, though that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.

The same year then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus "most likely" spread after escaping from a lab.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump's first term, has said he favors the lab leak scenario, too.

RELATED: Dr. Anthony Fauci’s security detail revoked by President Trump

Why you should care:

The origin of the virus is a crucial question that has eluded governments and health agencies around the world since the COVID-19 pandemic began. 

The answer could lead to significant domestic and geopolitical implications since the spread of the virus led to lockdowns, economic upheaval and millions of deaths. 

The other side:

Chinese authorities have in the past dismissed speculation about COVID's origins as unhelpful and motivated by politics.

China's embassy in Washington did not immediately return messages seeking comment after the CIA’s assessment was released Saturday.

The Source: Information in this article was taken from a CIA statement issued about its new assessment, which was obtained by The Associated Press. Background information on COVID and the CIA was also taken from The Associated Press. This story was reported from Detroit. 

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