El Niño expected to continue through the California winter
LOS ANGELES - El Niño weather conditions will continue through winter for California, then transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño conditions are currently at its peak and could last through April. There is a good chance El Niño could strengthen and become a so-called super El Niño.
The informal threshold for a "very strong" or "historically strong" El Niño event is 2.0 °C above average, which NOAA says was reached for the second month in a row.
In November the average was 2.0°C, and in December it was 2.1°C.
"To qualify as a very strong event in the official record, however, we’ll need to see the three-month-average Niño-3.4 index, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), meet or exceed the threshold," NOAA forecasters said in a statement.
If January’s index ends up at 1.9 °C or greater, the Nov–Jan ONI will qualify.
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The last super El Niño winter was 2015-16.
Forecasters also indicate increasing odds that the Pacific will return to La Niña status by late summer, with over a 50% chance of La Niña conditions by July and a 60% chance of La Niña conditions in August.
The U.S. just came out of a rare "triple dip" La Niña in the winters of 2020-21 through 2022-23 before boomeranging into the strong El Niño this winter.
The La Niña phase typically correlates to dry weather in the southern U.S. and cooler, wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the North.
FOX Weather contributed to this story