Nithya Raman surges to 11-point lead over Karen Bass in LA mayoral poll
Raman holds big lead over Mayor Bass, new poll shows
A new UC Berkeley/LA Times poll shows Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman taking a sizable lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the LA mayor's race.
LOS ANGELES - Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has built an 11-point lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass as the city enters the final weeks of the mayoral runoff race.
What we know:
A survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times reveals Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% among likely voters.
The online poll surveyed 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters between September 15 and September 20, carrying a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
The figures reflect a notable momentum shift from the June 2 primary election, where Bass placed first with 34% of the vote, followed by Raman at 29% and reality television personality Spencer Pratt at 26%.
Survey findings highlight challenging favorability metrics for the incumbent mayor, with 63% of likely voters viewing Bass unfavorably compared to 28% favorably.
Dissatisfaction stems in part from her administration's handling of the January 2025 Palisades Fire emergency, which left 12 dead and destroyed thousands of homes; 56% of respondents rated her response as poor or very poor.
On the other hand, 40% of likely voters view Raman favorably, 39% view her unfavorably, and 21% hold no opinion.
The poll demonstrates a sharp generational split. Raman commands 66% of likely voters ages 18 to 29 and 64% among those ages 30 to 39. Bass retains her strongest support among older demographics, leading with 41% support from voters ages 65 and older compared to Raman’s 21%.
Geographically, Raman leads in most areas of the city—including the San Fernando Valley and the Eastside—while Bass maintains stronger backing in South Los Angeles and the Harbor Area.
What we don't know:
While Raman holds a firm advantage in the latest survey, the ultimate outcome is uncertain because 33% of likely voters indicate they are still undecided.
This uncertainty is largely centered on the electorate that voted for alternative candidates in the primary.
Approximately 63% of voters who backed Spencer Pratt in June have not chosen a candidate for the general election. Among the portion of Pratt voters who have made a choice, 22% favor Bass compared to 16% for Raman.
What they're saying:
Bass’s campaign team issued a strong statement pushing back against the survey, calling it an "outlier poll" that fails to represent the city's broader voting population.
"One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong isn't reflective of the energy we see when talking to voters every day and what every other poll indicates — this is going to be a close race," said Bass campaign spokesman Alex Stack. "Our campaign is continuing to do our job: contrasting Mayor Bass' record of delivering results on housing, public safety, and neighborhood investment with Nithya Raman's out-of-step views on allowing encampments near schools and failing to show up for her constituents."
The Bass campaign further argued that online-only polling methodologies undercount working-class families, seniors, and non-English speaking communities who turn out on Election Day.
Bass criticizes latest poll as Nithya Raman takes lead
A new poll shows LA City Councilmember Nithya Raman with an 11-point lead over Karen Bass in the race for mayor. However, Bass criticized the poll, saying she doesn't see Raman as the frontrunner.
What's next:
Both candidates are scheduled to participate in back-to-back conversations on September 29 as part of the Jewish Los Angeles Mayoral Forum in West Los Angeles, organized by the Jewish Federation Los Angeles.
What you can do:
You can access ballot details, key dates, and voter registration lookup via the California Secretary of State Voter Portal.
You can also check local ballot dispatch schedules and sample ballot materials using the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk website.
The Source: This report is based on survey data gathered and published by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in partnership with the Los Angeles Times. City News Service contributed.