Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman tells Democrats after Biden drops out: 'Get smart and unite'

WASHINGTON - It was a historic day as President Joe Biden announced that he was dropping his bid for re-election and throwing his support to Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic party’s 2024 presidential nominee.  

The abrupt announcement made in a social media post Sunday afternoon thrust the party into a pit of chaos and speculation. But presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman – who has correctly predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 – says there's still a way forward for Democrats despite the tumult. 

Lichtman's predictions use a system he developed called "The 13 Keys to the White House" to determine the outcome of the elections. 

"The keys gauge the strength and performance of the White House party," Lichtman told FOX 5 Sunday.

He describes the "Keys’" as a "vote up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party."

READ MORE: Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman uses 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ tracker on 2024 election 

"And if six or more of the keys go against them, they are predicted to be the losers," he says. Here are Lichtman's 13 Keys: 

• KEY 1 (Party Mandate)
• KEY 2 (Contest)
• KEY 3 (Incumbency)
• KEY 4 (Third Party)
• KEY 5 (Short-Term Economy)
• KEY 6 (Long-Term Economy)
• KEY 7 (Policy Change)
• KEY 8 (Social Unrest)
• KEY 9 (Scandal)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/Military Failure)
• KEY 11 (Foreign/Military Success)
• KEY 12 (Incumbent Charisma)
• KEY 13 (Challenger Charisma)

"With Biden dropping out, they [Democrats] lose one more key: the incumbency key," Lichtman said. "But they can still preserve another key: the contest key if, finally, the Democrats get smart and unite behind Kamala Harris as the consensus nominee, they keep that key in line."

Lichtman says so far, it appears that's exactly what the Democratic Party is doing but there is still some speculation about whether all the party members are going to fall in line.

It won't take long to find out though. The real test of the party's unity will come at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month. 

Litchman says when some of those questions are answered, he'll be able to make a final prediction. 

"There are four shaky keys that I haven't decided and I haven't made a final prediction yet. They are third party, social unrest and foreign/military failure and success. Provided Harris becomes the consensus nominee, three of those four keys would have to fall to predict the Democrat's defeat," Lichtman said. "If she doesn't become the consensus nominee, only two would have to fall."