Trump backs down on doubling tariffs after Ontario halts electricity surcharge

WASHINGTON -  President Donald Trump 's threat on Tuesday to double his planned tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% for Canada led the provincial government of Ontario to suspend its planned surcharges on electricity sold to the United States.

As a result, the White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the U.S. president pulled back on his doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs, even as the federal government still plans to place a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports starting Wednesday.

The drama on Tuesday delivered a win for Trump but also amplified concerns about tariffs that have roiled the stock market and stirred recession risks. Tuesday's escalation and cooling in the ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada only compounded the rising sense of uncertainty of how Trump's tariff hikes will affect the economies of both countries.

What they're saying:

Trump shocked markets Tuesday morning by saying that the increase of the tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday had been a response to the 25% price hike that Ontario put on electricity sold to the United States.

Trump said on social media that the increase of the tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday is a response to the price increases that the provincial government of Ontario put on electricity sold to the United States.

RELATED: What companies are saying about tariff price hikes: Full list

"I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD," Trump posted Tuesday on Truth Social.

"The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State," Trump posted on Tuesday. "This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear."

Later on Tuesday, Premier of Ontario Doug Ford of Canada said he would not impose the electricity surcharge on parts of the U.S. 

"Secretary Lutnick agreed to officially meet with Premier Ford in Washington on Thursday, March 13 alongside the United States Trade Representative to discuss a renewed USMCA ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline," in a joint statment Ford posted on social media. "In response, Ontario agreed to suspend its 25 per cent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota."

Trump has not responded to Ford's latest decision. 

Dig deeper:

The U.S. president has given a variety of explanations for his antagonism of Canada, saying that his separate 25% tariffs are about fentanyl smuggling and voicing objections to Canada putting high taxes on dairy imports that penalize U.S. farmers. But he continued to call for Canada to become part of the United States as a solution, a form of taunting that has infuriated Canadian leaders.

Stock market reacts

By the numbers:

The U.S. stock market fell further Tuesday following President Donald Trump’s latest escalation in his trade war, briefly pulling Wall Street 10% below its record set last month. And like it's been for most of the past few weeks, the market’s slide on Tuesday was erratic and dizzying.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, but only after careening between a modest gain and a tumble of 1.5%. The main measure of Wall Street's health finished 9.3% below its all-time high after flirting with the 10% threshold that professional investors call a "correction."

Other indexes likewise swung sharply through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 478 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq composite ended up slipping 0.2%.

RELATED: Trump postpones tariffs on most goods from Mexico for one month

Why you should care:

The U.S. stock market promptly fell following his social media post, triggering more concerns after a brutal selloff on Monday that puts Trump under pressure to show he has a legitimate plan to grow the economy instead of perhaps pushing it into a recession.

Trump was set to deliver a Tuesday afternoon address to the Business Roundtable, a trade association of CEOs that during the 2024 campaign he wooed with the promise of lower corporate tax rates for domestic manufacturers. But his tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, steel, aluminum — with plans for more to possibly come on Europe, Brazil, South Korea, pharmaceutical drugs, copper, lumber and computer chips — would amount to a massive tax hike.

The stock market’s vote of no confidence over the past two weeks puts the president in a bind between his enthusiasm for taxing imports and his brand as a politician who understands business based on his own experiences in real estate, media and marketing.

RELATED: How Trump's tariffs will impact lumber prices and the housing market

The other side:

Harvard University economist Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary for the Clinton administration, on Monday put the odds of a recession at 50-50.

"All the emphasis on tariffs and all the ambiguity and uncertainty has both chilled demand and caused prices to go up," Summers posted on X. "We are getting the worst of both worlds - concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything."

The investment bank Goldman Sachs revised down its growth forecast for this year to 1.7% from 2.2% previously. It modestly increased its recession probability to 20% "because the White House has the option to pull back policy changes if downside risks begin to look more serious."

The backstory:

Trump has tried to assure the public that his tariffs would cause a bit of a "transition" to the economy, with the taxes prodding more companies to begin the years-long process of relocating factories to the United States to avoid the tariffs. But he set off alarms in an interview broadcast on Sunday in which he didn't rule out a possible recession.

"I hate to predict things like that," Trump said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures." "There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of — it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I don’t — I think it should be great for us. I mean, I think it should be great."

The promise of great things ahead did not eliminate anxiety, with the S&P 500 stock index tumbling 2.7% on Monday in an unmistakable Trump slump that has erased the market gains that greeted his victory in November 2024. The S&P 500 index fell roughly 0.4% in Tuesday morning trading.

The White House after the markets closed on Monday highlighted that the tariffs were prompting companies such as Honda, Volkswagen and Volvo to consider new investments in U.S. factories.

It issued a statement that Trump's combination of tariffs, deregulations and increased energy production had led industry leaders to promise to "create thousands of new jobs."

The significance of thousands of additional jobs was unclear, as the U.S. economy added 2.2 million jobs last year alone, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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