What is a ‘red mirage’ or ‘blue shift’?
In swing states, which are viewed as key wins for both presidential candidates hoping to secure the White House, experts are cautioning Americans to exercise patience as early tallies may be misleading.
The first report of the night might show a massive lead for one candidate, but why does that lead dwindle in some races and grow in others? Why does a single vote update from a big city sometimes confirm the winner when there’s still a substantial number of votes left to count?
Because a higher percentage of voters who request mail-in ballots are Democrats, there is the potential for what is referred to as a "red mirage" or "blue shift."
What is a red mirage?
A red mirage describes a situation where Republican candidates, like Donald Trump, may appear to have an outsized amount of support as votes are reported on Election Day – followed by a shift toward Democratic candidates in the days that follow.
Democrats have traditionally dominated mail-in voting, which has made it seem like Republicans are in the lead until the early hours of the next morning, when Democratic mail votes finally get added to the tally.
A person drops off a mail-in ballot on October 15, 2024 in Doylestown, Pennsylvania. (Credit: Hannah Beier/Getty Images)
In 2024, the overwhelming expectation is that early returns in this year’s key states will look better for Republicans. Reporter Nick Corasaniti of The New York Times wrote that "Democratic operatives" have come to expect "‘the red mirage," the result of far more Democrats than Republicans opting to vote by mail, leading to Democratic votes being counted later."
What is a blue shift?
However, as absentee and mail-in ballots, typically originating from denser, more urban precincts that lean Democratic, are tabulated, the outcome in certain states changes — leading to what is called a "blue shift" on the electoral map.
What is a blue mirage?
In some states, counties report mail-in ballots first. That can create a "blue mirage" in races that end up being only narrow victories for Democrats or even substantial victories for Republicans.
They show that Republicans can lose big cities overwhelmingly and still win the election.
Election 2024: Early voting vs. election day voting
Election Day voting unfolded largely smoothly across the nation Tuesday with only scattered reports of delays from extreme weather, ballot printing errors and technical problems. LiveNOW from FOX host Stephanie Coueignoux spoke to Aaron Cutler, partner and leader of government and public relations at Hogan Lovells on the difference between early voting versus election day voting.
Georgia allows counties to begin counting absentee ballots on Election Day. By the time polls close, some counties already have major batches of votes ready to report.
Those first reports are often disproportionately favorable to Democrats. Then, prepare to wait for a while. After the first reports, it may be hours before the rest of the state starts sending in results as they continue to count votes, meaning that blue mirage could stick around for quite a while.
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But the way Pennsylvania counts its votes could lead to a blue mirage, a red mirage, or both — at different times in the evening. Pennsylvania doesn't require counties to report their mail-in votes first, and they aren't allowed to start processing those votes until Election Day.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden took a massive lead as pre-Election Day votes were counted, then Trump took a huge lead as Election Day votes were counted, and then Biden eventually regained his narrow margin as more mail votes were counted.